Thank you, JonMorgan!
That at least got it to swallow the .xml file. I then got a massive pile of ‘failed to import’ messages, but at least this is a new problem! 🙂
Ah! Thank you! The database editing is what I needed. Couldn’t find that on any of the other moving guides.
Resolution: Needed to edit the wp_options table in the blog’s database to point at the old.domain.tld location, then it took just fine.