I believe I ruled out theme conflicts by switching to a basic theme. It made no difference. There aren’t many other plugins, but I suppose I could try deactivating them to see.
Have you seen this problem before?
Solved this problem for me:
the plugin was creating the wp-content/themes-ai1ec directory with nothing in it and then getting stuck. I found this directory, with contents already exists in wp-content/plugins/all-in-one-event-calendar/themes-ai1ec
when I move that directory with contents to wp-content/ the plugin is happy. This doesn’t make sense, and I would have expected to see the devs chime in here, but there it is, at least in my case.
Hope that helps someone